A Model of Protests and Reform

This paper proposes a theoretical framework for the analysis of conflicts between governments and pressure groups over social and economic policy reform. The main result is that protests are most likely when pressure groups are moderately strong and concerned that their strength will decline in the future, for such groups are strong enough to mobilize opposition but not strong enough to make credible deals with the government. A case study of French politics in the 1990s and 2000s and a comparative analysis of political strikes in Europe from 1980 to the present illustrate the theoretical results. The model has implications for the more general theoretical and political problem of how distributive conflicts play out in different institutional environments.